blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread
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blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/03/16 20:18] – va7fi | blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/10/13 17:48] (current) – va7fi | ||
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- | ====== COVID-19 Spread ====== | + | ====== COVID-19 Spread |
<WRAP center round important 90%> | <WRAP center round important 90%> | ||
- | I'm not an epidemiologist, | + | * I'm not an epidemiologist, |
+ | * The original post was written on March 16. Since then, I've updated the graphs | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | One of the key messages from today' | + | One of the key messages from today' |
First, I got the data from [[https:// | First, I got the data from [[https:// | ||
- | {{ : | + | ^Date ^Count ^ ^Date |
- | |< 50px >| | + | |2020-03-01| ?^ |2020-03-08| |
- | ^Date ^ Count | | + | |2020-03-02| |
- | |2020-03-02| 27| | + | |2020-03-03| |
- | |2020-03-03| 27| | + | |2020-03-04| |
- | |2020-03-04| 33| | + | |2020-03-05| |
- | |2020-03-05| 37| | + | |2020-03-06| |
- | |2020-03-06| 48| | + | |2020-03-07| |
- | |2020-03-07| 60| | + | |
- | |2020-03-08| 64| | + | |
- | |2020-03-09| 77| | + | |
- | |2020-03-10| 95| | + | |
- | |2020-03-11| 117| | + | |
- | |2020-03-12| 157| | + | |
- | |2020-03-13| 201| | + | |
- | |2020-03-14| 254| | + | |
- | |2020-03-15| 342| | + | |
- | There seems two different patterns in this two-week period: | + | {{: |
+ | <WRAP rightalign> | ||
+ | **†** Data from March 16 onward has been added to the original model without modifications. | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | There seems to be two different patterns in this two-week period: | ||
* Between March 2 and March 10 (ish) (<fc # | * Between March 2 and March 10 (ish) (<fc # | ||
- | * Between | + | * But since March 10 (ish) (<fc # |
<hidden Show Formulae> | <hidden Show Formulae> | ||
The formulae for the exponential curves are: | The formulae for the exponential curves are: | ||
- | * $24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) | + | * \$N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}\$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) |
- | * $93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) | + | * \$N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}\$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) |
</ | </ | ||
+ | \\ | ||
+ | //If// the blue exponential pattern continues: | ||
+ | * We should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday (from 342 on Sunday) | ||
+ | * A week after that: over 9000 cases | ||
+ | * By the end of April 1: 26,000 cases (similar to Italy today) | ||
- | If the blue pattern continues until the end of the week, we should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday((I' | + | {{: |
- | )): | + | |
- | {{ : | + | |
- | In reality, the spread of the infection follows a curve like the [[wp> | + | So there' |
+ | |||
+ | But doing the right things can change that future. | ||
{{ : | {{ : | ||
+ | The real question is how soon we will reach that middle point, and at what height. | ||
Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | ||
Line 49: | Line 54: | ||
\\ | \\ | ||
- | If you like this sort of thing, I did something similar | + | |
+ | And here's another one with different animations that complements it very nicely. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ youtube> | ||
+ | |||
+ | \\ | ||
+ | |||
+ | Here's an interesting article from [[https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/ | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== More on the Logistic Function ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | This is an update from March 19th. | ||
+ | |||
+ | This section illustrates how eventhough the infection follows a Logistic Function, that fact alone doesn' | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{: | ||
+ | |||
+ | The equation for "Model 3" is: | ||
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 21.1)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </WRAP> | ||
+ | |||
+ | It reaches its halfway point around March 21 and peaks at 2000 people infected. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Its equation is: | ||
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.24(t - 32)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </WRAP> | ||
+ | |||
+ | But it reaches its halfway point at on April 1st and peaks at 20,000 people. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Reality could be anywhere in between, or even higher -- I could have easily created a curve that fits the current data just as well and peaks at 2 million people. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Part II ===== | ||
+ | This page is no longer being updated. |
blog/2020-03-16/covid-19_spread.txt · Last modified: 2020/10/13 17:48 by va7fi