blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread
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blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/03/20 07:36] – va7fi | blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/08/07 13:03] – external edit 127.0.0.1 | ||
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- | ====== COVID-19 Spread ====== | + | ====== COVID-19 Spread |
<WRAP center round important 90%> | <WRAP center round important 90%> | ||
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|2020-03-04| | |2020-03-04| | ||
|2020-03-05| | |2020-03-05| | ||
- | |2020-03-06| | + | |2020-03-06| |
- | |2020-03-07| | + | |2020-03-07| |
{{: | {{: | ||
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<hidden Show Formulae> | <hidden Show Formulae> | ||
The formulae for the exponential curves are: | The formulae for the exponential curves are: | ||
- | * $N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) | + | * \$N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}\$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) |
- | * $N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) | + | * \$N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}\$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) |
</ | </ | ||
\\ | \\ | ||
- | **If** the blue exponential pattern continues: | + | //If// the blue exponential pattern continues: |
* We should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday (from 342 on Sunday) | * We should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday (from 342 on Sunday) | ||
* A week after that: over 9000 cases | * A week after that: over 9000 cases | ||
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{{: | {{: | ||
- | So there' | + | So there' |
But doing the right things can change that future. | But doing the right things can change that future. | ||
{{ : | {{ : | ||
- | The real question is how soon will we reach that middle point, and at what height. | + | The real question is how soon we will reach that middle point, and at what height. |
Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | ||
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{{ : | {{ : | ||
- | ===== More on the Logistics | + | ===== More on the Logistic |
This is an update from March 19th. | This is an update from March 19th. | ||
- | Here, I want to illustrate that even though | + | This section illustrates how eventhough |
{{: | {{: | ||
- | The equation "Model 3" is: | + | The equation |
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 21.1)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </ | ||
- | $$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 17.6)}}$$ | + | It reaches its halfway point around March 21 and peaks at 2000 people infected. |
- | + | ||
- | It reaches its halfway point around March 18 and peaks at 2000 people infected. | + | |
{{: | {{: | ||
Its equation is: | Its equation is: | ||
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.24(t - 32)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </ | ||
- | $$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.25(t - 29)}}$$ | + | But it reaches its halfway point at on April 1st and peaks at 20,000 people. |
- | It reaches its halfway point at the end of the month and peaks at 20, | + | Reality could be anywhere in between, or even higher -- I could have easily created a curve that fits the current data just as well and peaks at 2 million |
- | Reality could be anywhere in between, lower, or even higher. | + | ===== Part II ===== |
+ | This page is no longer being updated. |
blog/2020-03-16/covid-19_spread.txt · Last modified: 2020/10/13 17:48 by va7fi