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blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/03/23 09:02] – va7fiblog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/10/13 17:48] (current) – va7fi
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 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
-One of the key messages from today's PM announcement is that things will get worse before they get better.  I wanted to have a sense of the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading in Canada, so I made a graph, and did some math.((If you like this sort of thing, I did something similar [[http://ptruchon.pagekite.me/wiki/blog/20111127co2_levels_a_depressing_story |in 2011]] about the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels, and then updated the data [[http://ptruchon.pagekite.me/wiki/blog/20180806co2levels |seven years]] later to see how my model stacked up.  It might be time for a new update soon...))+One of the key messages from today's PM announcement is that things will get worse before they get better.  I wanted to have a sense of the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading in Canada, so I made a graph, and did some math.((If you like this sort of thing, I did something similar [[https://ptruchon.pagekite.me/wiki/blog/20111127co2_levels_a_depressing_story |in 2011]] about the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels, and then updated the data [[http://ptruchon.pagekite.me/wiki/blog/20180806co2levels |seven years]] later to see how my model stacked up.  It might be time for a new update soon...))
  
  
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 <hidden Show Formulae> <hidden Show Formulae>
 The formulae for the exponential curves are: The formulae for the exponential curves are:
-  * $N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) +  * \$N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}\$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) 
-  * $N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10)+  * \$N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}\$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10)
 </hidden> </hidden>
 \\ \\
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 The equation for "Model 3" is: The equation for "Model 3" is:
 <WRAP centeralign> <WRAP centeralign>
-$$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 21.1)}}$$+\$$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 21.1)}}\$$
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 Its equation is: Its equation is:
 <WRAP centeralign> <WRAP centeralign>
-$$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.24(t - 32)}}$$+\$$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.24(t - 32)}}\$$
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
blog/2020-03-16/covid-19_spread.txt · Last modified: 2020/10/13 17:48 by va7fi