blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread
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COVID-19 Spread
I'm not an epidemiologist, doctor, or any kind of expert on the subject so take this with a grain of salt.
One of the key messages from today's PM announcement is that things will get worse before they get better. I wanted to have a sense of the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading in Canada, so I made a graph, and did some math.
First, I got the data from https://www.covid-19canada.com, plotted it on a graph, and tried to use a basic exponential model to extract some basic information.
Date | Count |
---|---|
2020-03-02 | 27 |
2020-03-03 | 27 |
2020-03-04 | 33 |
2020-03-05 | 37 |
2020-03-06 | 48 |
2020-03-07 | 60 |
2020-03-08 | 64 |
2020-03-09 | 77 |
2020-03-10 | 95 |
2020-03-11 | 117 |
2020-03-12 | 157 |
2020-03-13 | 201 |
2020-03-14 | 254 |
2020-03-15 | 342 |
It turns out that there's two different patterns in this two-week period:
- Between March 2 and March 10 (ish) (green line), the number of cases was doubling every 4.1 days
- Between March 10 (ish) and now (blue line), the number of cases is doubling every 2.7 days
If the blue pattern continues until the end of the week, we should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday:
blog/2020-03-16/covid-19_spread.1584411117.txt.gz · Last modified: 2020/03/16 19:11 by va7fi