blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread
Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revisionPrevious revisionNext revision | Previous revision | ||
blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/03/17 07:14] – va7fi | blog:2020-03-16:covid-19_spread [2020/10/13 17:48] (current) – va7fi | ||
---|---|---|---|
Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
- | ====== COVID-19 Spread ====== | + | ====== COVID-19 Spread |
<WRAP center round important 90%> | <WRAP center round important 90%> | ||
- | I'm not an epidemiologist, | + | * I'm not an epidemiologist, |
+ | * The original post was written on March 16. Since then, I've updated the graphs | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | One of the key messages from today' | + | One of the key messages from today' |
First, I got the data from [[https:// | First, I got the data from [[https:// | ||
- | {{ : | + | ^Date ^Count ^ ^Date |
- | |< 50px >| | + | |2020-03-01| ?^ |2020-03-08| |
- | ^Date ^ Count | | + | |2020-03-02| |
- | |2020-03-02| 27| | + | |2020-03-03| |
- | |2020-03-03| 27| | + | |2020-03-04| |
- | |2020-03-04| 33| | + | |2020-03-05| |
- | |2020-03-05| 37| | + | |2020-03-06| |
- | |2020-03-06| 48| | + | |2020-03-07| |
- | |2020-03-07| 60| | + | |
- | |2020-03-08| 64| | + | {{: |
- | |2020-03-09| 77| | + | <WRAP rightalign> |
- | |2020-03-10| 95| | + | **†** Data from March 16 onward has been added to the original model without modifications. |
- | |2020-03-11| 117| | + | </ |
- | |2020-03-12| 157| | + | |
- | |2020-03-13| 201| | + | |
- | |2020-03-14| 254| | + | |
- | |2020-03-15| 342| | + | |
There seems to be two different patterns in this two-week period: | There seems to be two different patterns in this two-week period: | ||
* Between March 2 and March 10 (ish) (<fc # | * Between March 2 and March 10 (ish) (<fc # | ||
- | * Since March 10 (ish) (<fc # | + | * But since March 10 (ish) (<fc # |
<hidden Show Formulae> | <hidden Show Formulae> | ||
The formulae for the exponential curves are: | The formulae for the exponential curves are: | ||
- | * $24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) | + | * \$N = 24.5 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{4.1})}\$ for the green line (where //t// is the number of days since March 2) |
- | * $93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) | + | * \$N = 93.1 \times 2^{(\frac{t}{2.7})}\$ for the blue line (where //t// is the number of days since March 10) |
</ | </ | ||
+ | \\ | ||
+ | //If// the blue exponential pattern continues: | ||
+ | * We should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday (from 342 on Sunday) | ||
+ | * A week after that: over 9000 cases | ||
+ | * By the end of April 1: 26,000 cases (similar to Italy today) | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{: | ||
- | If the blue pattern continues until the end of the week, we should have close to 1600 cases by the end of Saturday((I'll update this post every few days to see how the model holds up. | + | So there' |
- | )): | + | |
- | {{ : | + | |
- | In reality, the spread of the infection follows a curve like the [[wp> | + | But doing the right things can change that future. |
{{ : | {{ : | ||
+ | The real question is how soon we will reach that middle point, and at what height. | ||
Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | Here's a good video that explains this sort of math and why being able to think in exponential term is important for non-linear systems such as this one. | ||
Line 49: | Line 54: | ||
\\ | \\ | ||
- | If you like this sort of thing, I did something similar | + | |
+ | And here's another one with different animations that complements it very nicely. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ youtube> | ||
+ | |||
+ | \\ | ||
+ | |||
+ | Here's an interesting article from [[https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/ | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== More on the Logistic Function ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | This is an update from March 19th. | ||
+ | |||
+ | This section illustrates how eventhough the infection follows a Logistic Function, that fact alone doesn' | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{: | ||
+ | |||
+ | The equation for "Model 3" is: | ||
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{2000}{1 + e^{-0.32(t - 21.1)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </WRAP> | ||
+ | |||
+ | It reaches its halfway point around March 21 and peaks at 2000 people infected. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Its equation is: | ||
+ | <WRAP centeralign> | ||
+ | \$$N = \frac{20000}{1 + e^{-0.24(t - 32)}}\$$ | ||
+ | </WRAP> | ||
+ | |||
+ | But it reaches its halfway point at on April 1st and peaks at 20,000 people. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Reality could be anywhere in between, or even higher -- I could have easily created | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Part II ===== | ||
+ | This page is no longer being updated. |
blog/2020-03-16/covid-19_spread.1584454485.txt.gz · Last modified: 2020/03/17 07:14 by va7fi