blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii
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blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/03/20 13:58] – va7fi | blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/04/02 07:41] (current) – va7fi | ||
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* [[blog/ | * [[blog/ | ||
- | That didn't happen. | + | That didn't happen |
{{ blog: | {{ blog: | ||
- | * We can think of it as a logistics curve that plateaued at a little over 100,000 cases around June 2020. | + | |
+ | The reality is much more complicated than either | ||
+ | * From the beginning until June 2020, the infection | ||
* But then in September 2020 it kicked into exponential gears again (the second wave). | * But then in September 2020 it kicked into exponential gears again (the second wave). | ||
* It looked like it was starting to plateau again in mid-January 2021, but instead, we might be headed into a third wave. | * It looked like it was starting to plateau again in mid-January 2021, but instead, we might be headed into a third wave. | ||
- | I'm now keeping | + | I created |
===== The total Covid-19 count ===== | ===== The total Covid-19 count ===== | ||
{{ blog: | {{ blog: | ||
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===== The number of new daily cases ===== | ===== The number of new daily cases ===== | ||
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- | This graph represents the number of new cases each day. Mathematically, | + | This graph represents the number of new cases each day. Mathematically, |
+ | |||
+ | Here, we clearly see: | ||
+ | * the first wave until June 2020 | ||
+ | * the lull from June 2020 to September 2020 | ||
+ | * the second wave from September 2020 to February 2021 | ||
+ | * the beginning of the third wave in March 2021. | ||
- | Here, we clearly see that from June to September were our lowest number of new cases, which translated into an almost horizontal curve above. | + | And the scary thing is that each wave seems to be bigger than the previous |
===== The daily change in daily cases ===== | ===== The daily change in daily cases ===== | ||
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When this graph is negative, the number of new cases each day is decreasing. | When this graph is negative, the number of new cases each day is decreasing. | ||
- | We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the high infection rate of December, except we have now lost that ground in March, indicating we're starting | + | We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the second wave, except we are now accelerating again towards |
===== The doubling time ===== | ===== The doubling time ===== | ||
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A small number is bad because it means the total number of cases doubles in a short amount of time. | A small number is bad because it means the total number of cases doubles in a short amount of time. | ||
- | For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days (for the country), and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time. | + | For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days, and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time. |
A constant doubling time means that the growth is exponential. | A constant doubling time means that the growth is exponential. | ||
===== BC, Alberta, Canada ===== | ===== BC, Alberta, Canada ===== | ||
- | Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada. | + | Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada. |
blog/2021-03-20/covid-19_spread_part_iii.1616273939.txt.gz · Last modified: 2021/03/20 13:58 by va7fi