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--- blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/03/20 14:03] – [Covid-19 Spread (Part III)] va7fi
+++ blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/04/02 07:41] (current) – va7fi
@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
   * [[blog/2020-03-22/covid-19_spread_part_ii |Part II]] (written at the beginning of April 2020) looked at different logistics models that we could fall on depending on how hard we worked at flattening the curve. {{ blog/2020-03-22/covid19log2b.png }}
-That didn't happen.  As of today, we have 927,069 cases country-wide.
+That didn't happen either.  As of today, we have 927,069 cases country-wide.
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:total_covid-19_count.png }}
-The reality is much more complicated than either of these two simple models (exponential and logistics).  But they are non-the-less still very useful to break things down into different parts:
+The reality is much more complicated than either of these two simple models (exponential and logistics).  But they are nonetheless still very useful to break things down into different parts:
   * From the beginning until June 2020, the infection curve was roughly logistics with a plateau of a little over 100,000 cases (the first wave).
   * But then in September 2020 it kicked into exponential gears again (the second wave).
@@ Line 23: / Line 23: @@
 ===== The number of new daily cases =====
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_daily_cases.png }}
-This graph represents the number of new cases each day.  Mathematically, it's the first derivative of the previous graph.  Numerically, I computed the slope of 5-day secants of the smoothed curve, again to reduce on the overall trend.
+This graph represents the number of new cases each day.  Mathematically, it's the first derivative of the previous graph.  Numerically, I computed the slope of 5-day secants of the smoothed curve, again to reduce noise of the overall trend.
-Here, we clearly see that from June to September were our lowest number of new cases, which translated into an almost horizontal curve above.  And we can clearly see the "height" of the second wave in the winter, and how we might be about to start a third wave now without even having finished the second one.
+Here, we clearly see:
+  * the first wave until June 2020
+  * the lull from June 2020 to September 2020
+  * the second wave from September 2020 to February 2021
+  * the beginning of the third wave in March 2021.
+And the scary thing is that each wave seems to be bigger than the previous one.
 ===== The daily change in daily cases =====
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_acceleration.png }}
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 When this graph is negative, the number of new cases each day is decreasing.  When it's zero, the number of new cases each day is the same.  And when it's above zero, the number of new cases each day increases each day.
-We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the high infection rate of December, except we have now lost that ground in March, indicating we're starting a new wave.
+We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the second wave, except we are now accelerating again towards a third wave.
 ===== The doubling time =====
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:doubling_time.png }}
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 A small number is bad because it means the total number of cases doubles in a short amount of time.
-For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days (for the country), and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time.
+For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days, and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time.
 A constant doubling time means that the growth is exponential.  An infinite doubling time means no more new cases.  We can see that the doubling time of 200 days we had last month is starting to decrease, again indicating that we are starting a new wave.
 ===== BC, Alberta, Canada =====
-Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada.  The spreadsheet includes the calculations, the raw data, and the source of the data on the [[https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html |government website]].  I'll probably be updating the numbers every week or two.
+Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada.  The [[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i2hKBx4Yy_yWYtx8Qj68ojaHCJN9lDLaORSlM9Ot1g4 |spreadsheet]] includes the calculations, the raw data, and the source of the data on the [[https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html |government website]].  I'll probably be updating the numbers every week or two.