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--- blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/03/20 14:08] – [The number of new daily cases] va7fi
+++ blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/04/02 07:41] (current) – va7fi
@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
   * [[blog/2020-03-22/covid-19_spread_part_ii |Part II]] (written at the beginning of April 2020) looked at different logistics models that we could fall on depending on how hard we worked at flattening the curve. {{ blog/2020-03-22/covid19log2b.png }}
-That didn't happen.  As of today, we have 927,069 cases country-wide.
+That didn't happen either.  As of today, we have 927,069 cases country-wide.
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:total_covid-19_count.png }}
-The reality is much more complicated than either of these two simple models (exponential and logistics).  But they are non-the-less still very useful to break things down into different parts:
+The reality is much more complicated than either of these two simple models (exponential and logistics).  But they are nonetheless still very useful to break things down into different parts:
   * From the beginning until June 2020, the infection curve was roughly logistics with a plateau of a little over 100,000 cases (the first wave).
   * But then in September 2020 it kicked into exponential gears again (the second wave).
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 When this graph is negative, the number of new cases each day is decreasing.  When it's zero, the number of new cases each day is the same.  And when it's above zero, the number of new cases each day increases each day.
-We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the high infection rate of December, except we have now lost that ground in March, indicating we're starting a new wave.
+We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the second wave, except we are now accelerating again towards a third wave.
 ===== The doubling time =====
 {{ blog:2021-03-20:doubling_time.png }}
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 A small number is bad because it means the total number of cases doubles in a short amount of time.
-For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days (for the country), and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time.
+For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days, and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time.
 A constant doubling time means that the growth is exponential.  An infinite doubling time means no more new cases.  We can see that the doubling time of 200 days we had last month is starting to decrease, again indicating that we are starting a new wave.
 ===== BC, Alberta, Canada =====
-Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada.  The spreadsheet includes the calculations, the raw data, and the source of the data on the [[https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html |government website]].  I'll probably be updating the numbers every week or two.
+Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada.  The [[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i2hKBx4Yy_yWYtx8Qj68ojaHCJN9lDLaORSlM9Ot1g4 |spreadsheet]] includes the calculations, the raw data, and the source of the data on the [[https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html |government website]].  I'll probably be updating the numbers every week or two.