blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii
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blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/03/20 13:25] – created va7fi | blog:2021-03-20:covid-19_spread_part_iii [2021/04/02 07:41] (current) – va7fi | ||
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A year ago, I wrote two posts looking at the Covid-19 numbers for Canada. | A year ago, I wrote two posts looking at the Covid-19 numbers for Canada. | ||
- | * [[blog/ | + | * [[blog/ |
- | * [[blog/ | + | * [[blog/ |
- | Instead, this is what happened: | + | That didn't happen either. |
{{ blog: | {{ blog: | ||
+ | |||
+ | The reality is much more complicated than either of these two simple models (exponential and logistics). | ||
+ | * From the beginning until June 2020, the infection curve was roughly logistics with a plateau of a little over 100,000 cases (the first wave). | ||
+ | * But then in September 2020 it kicked into exponential gears again (the second wave). | ||
+ | * It looked like it was starting to plateau again in mid-January 2021, but instead, we might be headed into a third wave. | ||
+ | |||
+ | I created a [[https:// | ||
+ | ===== The total Covid-19 count ===== | ||
+ | {{ blog: | ||
+ | This graph is a " | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===== The number of new daily cases ===== | ||
+ | {{ blog: | ||
+ | This graph represents the number of new cases each day. Mathematically, | ||
+ | |||
+ | Here, we clearly see: | ||
+ | * the first wave until June 2020 | ||
+ | * the lull from June 2020 to September 2020 | ||
+ | * the second wave from September 2020 to February 2021 | ||
+ | * the beginning of the third wave in March 2021. | ||
+ | |||
+ | And the scary thing is that each wave seems to be bigger than the previous one. | ||
+ | ===== The daily change in daily cases ===== | ||
+ | {{ blog: | ||
+ | This graph is a little more abstract: it represents the daily increase of daily cases. | ||
+ | |||
+ | When this graph is negative, the number of new cases each day is decreasing. | ||
+ | |||
+ | We can see that in January, we started putting the breaks on the second wave, except we are now accelerating again towards a third wave. | ||
+ | ===== The doubling time ===== | ||
+ | {{ blog: | ||
+ | This last graph represents the time (in days) that it would take to double the total number of cases were the trend to continue. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A small number is bad because it means the total number of cases doubles in a short amount of time. | ||
+ | |||
+ | For example, between October and January, the doubling time was roughly 50 days, and looking back at the first graph, we can see that the number of cases doubled in about that time. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A constant doubling time means that the growth is exponential. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== BC, Alberta, Canada ===== | ||
+ | Finally, I do this same analysis for BC and Alberta as well as Canada. | ||
+ |
blog/2021-03-20/covid-19_spread_part_iii.1616271939.txt.gz · Last modified: 2021/03/20 13:25 by va7fi