A year ago, I wrote two posts looking at the Covid-19 numbers for Canada.

• Part I looked at a basic exponential model built at a time (mid-March 2020) when we only had 350 reported cases across the country. It predicted that we'd have 26,000 two weeks later, which sounded absolutely crazy. It was wrong by about two weeks. We hit 26,000 in mid-April 2020.

• Part II (beginning of April 2020) looked at different logistics models that we could fall on depending on how hard we worked at flattening the curve. As of today, we have 927,069 cases country-wide so that didn't happen.

Instead, this is what happened: